What are preflop win rates?
Preflop win rate means the approximate chance that a starting hand will win before any community cards are dealt. In Texas Hold'em, this is often called preflop equity.
For example, AA has about 85% equity against one random hand. That does not mean AA always wins. It means that, before the flop, AA is a huge favorite against a random opponent.
Preflop win rates are useful because they help beginners understand starting hand strength. But they are only a starting point. Position, stack size, opponent ranges, and postflop play still matter.
Beginner starting hand chart
The numbers below are rough heads-up estimates against one random hand. Exact equity changes depending on suits, blockers, dead cards, and the opponent's actual range.
| Hand | Approx. equity vs random hand | Beginner note |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 85% | Best starting hand |
| KK | 82% | Very strong, but watch for aces |
| 80% | Premium pair | |
| JJ | 77% | Strong, but overcards make postflop harder |
| TT | 75% | Strong medium-high pair |
| 99 | 72% | Good pair, many overcards can appear |
| AKs | 67% | Best non-pair hand |
| AKo | 65% | Strong, but still needs to hit often |
| AQs | 66% | Strong suited broadway |
| AQo | 64% | Strong, but can be dominated by AK |
| KQs | 63% | Playable suited broadway |
| 22 | 50% | Small pair; often plays as a set-mining hand |
| 72o | 33% | One of the weakest starting hands |
The main takeaway: pocket pairs are strong preflop, and premium pairs are far ahead of most hands. Strong unpaired hands like AK are valuable, but they are not as dominant as AA or KK.
Pocket pair win rates
A pocket pair means both hole cards have the same rank: AA, KK, 77, 22, and so on.
| Hand | Approx. equity vs random hand | How to think about it |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 85% | The best preflop hand |
| KK | 82% | Nearly always a premium value hand |
| 80% | Strong but sensitive to A/K-high boards | |
| JJ | 77% | Strong, but often tricky after the flop |
| TT | 75% | Strong enough to play aggressively in many spots |
| 99 | 72% | Good, but many overcards can come |
| 88 | 69% | Can win unimproved or make a set |
| 77 | 66% | More board-dependent |
| 66 | 63% | Often needs favorable boards |
| 55 | 60% | Mostly valuable when it makes a set |
| 44 | 57% | Small pair, position matters |
| 33 | 54% | Usually set-mining style hand |
| 22 | 50% | Close to even against random hands |
Small pocket pairs look better in raw equity than they feel in practice. The problem is that they are hard to play after the flop when they do not make a set.
Suited hand win rates
Suited hands have two cards of the same suit, such as A♠ K♠. They usually have slightly more equity than the same offsuit hand because they can make flushes.
| Hand | Approx. equity | Beginner note |
|---|---|---|
| AKs | 67% | Best suited broadway hand |
| AQs | 66% | Strong top-pair and flush potential |
| AJs | 65% | Strong, but can be dominated |
| ATs | 64% | Playable in many positions |
| KQs | 63% | Strong connected suited broadway |
| KJs | 61% | Can make strong hands, watch domination |
| QJs | 60% | Good playability |
| JTs | 57% | Strong draw potential |
| T9s | 55% | Good connector, position helps |
| 98s | 54% | More speculative |
Suitedness often adds only a few percentage points of equity, but it also improves playability. Hands that can make straights and flushes can win large pots when they connect well.
Offsuit hand win rates
Offsuit hands have two different suits. They usually have less equity and less playability than their suited versions.
| Hand | Approx. equity | Beginner note |
|---|---|---|
| AKo | 65% | Strong but not a made hand |
| AQo | 64% | Strong, but can be dominated by AK |
| AJo | 63% | Position matters a lot |
| KQo | 61% | Playable, but domination is possible |
| KJo | 59% | Risky from early position |
| QJo | 58% | Easy to overplay |
| JTo | 55% | Better from late position |
| T9o | 52% | Much weaker than T9s |
| 72o | 33% | Usually fold |
Broadway cards look attractive, but offsuit broadways can be dangerous. If you make top pair with a worse kicker, you can lose a big pot to a better top pair.
Common preflop all-in matchups
These matchups help beginners understand why preflop poker can feel swingy.
| Matchup | Approx. favorite | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | AA ~82% | KK is strong but still far behind AA |
| AA vs AKs | AA ~87% | AK blocks an ace, but AA is still dominant |
| KK vs AK | KK ~70% | AK often needs to hit an ace |
| QQ vs AK | QQ ~54% | A classic race, pair is slight favorite |
| JJ vs AK | JJ ~54% | Similar coin-flip style spot |
| TT vs AQ | TT ~55% | Pair vs two overcards |
| AK vs AQ | AK ~73% | AQ is dominated by AK |
| 99 vs 98s | 99 ~78% | Pair is far ahead, suited connector has outs |
This is why AK is powerful but not invincible. Against many pocket pairs, AK is close to a coin flip.
Multiway pots reduce win rates
The charts above mostly describe one hand against one random hand. When more opponents enter the pot, your chance to win goes down.
AA is the easiest example:
| Situation | AA win-rate idea |
|---|---|
| Against 1 player | About 85% |
| Against 2 players | Often in the 70% range |
| Against 3 players | Often in the 60% range |
| Against 4+ players | Lower again |
This is one reason strong hands usually want to raise preflop. Raising builds the pot when you are ahead and can reduce the number of opponents.
Why win rate is not the same as profitability
Preflop equity is useful, but it does not tell the whole story. Poker decisions are about expected value, not only raw win percentage.
Position matters
The same hand can be profitable on the button and a fold under the gun. Late position gives you more information and lets you realize equity more easily.
Ranges matter
AA has 85% against a random hand, but your opponent is not always random. If a tight player 4-bets, their range is much stronger than random.
Playability matters
JTs and T9s may not have premium raw equity, but they can make straights and flushes. That makes them easier to play in position than many weak offsuit hands.
Domination matters
AQ looks strong, but against AK it is dominated. If both players make top pair with an ace, AQ can lose because of the kicker.
How beginners should use a starting hand chart
Do not try to memorize every number. Use preflop win rates as buckets.
| Equity bucket | Example hands | Beginner approach |
|---|---|---|
| 80%+ | AA, KK, QQ | Premium hands; raise and 3-bet for value |
| 65-79% | JJ, TT, AK, AQ | Strong hands; play aggressively but respect action |
| 55-64% | KQ, QJ, medium pairs | Position-dependent |
| 50-54% | Small pairs, connectors | Need position and postflop plan |
| Under 40% | 72o, weak offsuit trash | Usually fold |
The beginner goal is simple:
- Play premium hands confidently.
- Avoid weak offsuit hands.
- Respect early-position raises.
- Use position before expanding your range.
FAQ
What is the preflop win rate of AA?
AA has about 85% equity against one random hand. It is the best starting hand in Texas Hold'em, but it can still lose.
What is the preflop win rate of AK?
AKs has about 67% equity against one random hand, while AKo is around 65%. Against a pocket pair like QQ or JJ, AK is often close to a coin flip.
Is AK better than a pocket pair?
It depends on the pair. AK is far behind AA and KK, close against hands like QQ or JJ, and ahead of many non-pair hands. Raw equity is only part of the decision.
What is the worst starting hand in Texas Hold'em?
72 offsuit is often used as the classic worst hand because it is low, disconnected, and offsuit. It has poor equity and poor playability.
Should beginners play only high-equity hands?
Beginners should start tight, but not blindly follow equity alone. Position, previous action, stack depth, and postflop playability also matter.
Summary
Preflop win rates help you understand starting hand strength before the flop. AA is about 85% against one random hand, KK about 82%, QQ about 80%, and AKs about 67%.
Use these numbers as a guide, not a rulebook. Strong preflop poker comes from combining hand strength with position, ranges, stack sizes, and a plan for later streets.